Flutter预计利润将在2027年翻倍

Lea Hogg September 26, 2024

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Flutter预计利润将在2027年翻倍

Flutter Entertainment(FanDuel和Paddy Power的母公司)大胆预测,到2027年,其核心利润将翻两倍以上。

支撑这一信心的背后动力是:美国体育博彩市场蓬勃发展,预计随着州级法规的放松,近80%的美国人将参与体育博彩。Flutter的预测不仅揭示了美国和全球博彩市场的未来,还暗示着快速扩张、激烈竞争以及潜在的丰厚机会。

这一充满信心的预测不仅反映了乐观情绪,还标志着体育博彩行业在规模和市场动态方面的巨大转变。

争夺主导美国博彩市场

自2018年美国最高法院推翻《职业和业余体育保护法案》(PASPA)的裁决,允许各州合法化体育博彩以来,整个行业呈现出爆发式增长。

来源: SiGMA新闻。.

目前,已有38个州和哥伦比亚特区开放了合法体育博彩的大门。部分增长源于各州通过税收寻找新的收入来源,同时消费者对便捷博彩平台的需求日益增加。

Flutter的首席执行官Peter Jackson透露,目前50%的美国人可以接触到体育博彩,随着更多州接受监管,这一比例可能飙升至80%。随着市场的扩展,Flutter预计其美国业务(主要由FanDuel推动)到2027年将产生近24亿美元的调整后核心利润,这几乎占其预计的全球利润50亿美元的一半,这突显了美国市场在其增长战略中的重要性。

值得注意的是,FanDuel以惊人的53%市场份额领跑美国市场,远超其竞争对手DraftKings(31%)和BetMGM(7%)。FanDuel的市场主导地位,加上其在多年高额营销投入后实现盈利,使Flutter在美国博彩行业日趋成熟之际占据了有利地位。

2030年市场规模将达630亿美元

Flutter的未来展望基于其预测,认为到2030年,美国体育和在线赌场市场将达到630亿美元——这是对之前预测的升级。此增长主要依赖于尚未合法化体育博彩的州继续放宽博彩法,以及在线赌场游戏的创新。

随着美国市场的迅速扩张,运营商之间为尽早占领市场份额展开了激烈竞争。尽管DraftKings和BetMGM在努力缩小差距,但FanDuel的领先优势为Flutter提供了显著的竞争优势。此外,越来越多的欧洲运营商进入美国市场,预计将加剧竞争,因为这些运营商希望利用其在更成熟博彩环境中的经验。

来源: SiGMA 新闻。

然而,这一增长并非没有挑战。美国的监管机构仍在微调其博彩法,税收变化或广告限制可能影响市场动态。然而,彼得·杰克逊仍保持信心,强调各州对税收收入的渴望使得监管机构不太可能遏制增长。他指出,“各州对进一步税收收入的需求十分强烈”,这将推动更多的合法化进程。

并购是否是增长的基石?

虽然Flutter的美国业务蓬勃发展,但其扩张计划并不限于北美。近年来,该公司通过激进的收购策略来增强其全球影响力。最显著的是,Flutter以23亿欧元从Playtech收购了Snaitech,标志着其进军欧洲最大在线博彩市场之一——意大利的重要一步。

此外,Flutter正在拉丁美洲取得进展,以3.5亿美元收购了巴西领先的博彩品牌Betnacional的多数股权。此交易彰显了Flutter在体育博彩和在线博彩日益兴起的新兴市场中的雄心。拥有超过2亿人口且对体育博彩兴趣日益浓厚的巴西为未来增长提供了令人垂涎的机会。

鉴于Flutter在全球范围内运营着一个“极其分散的市场”,正如Jackson所描述的那样,并购可能仍将是其战略的核心。该公司已经展示了对有价值资产的敏锐眼光,未来的收购可能将重点放在进入未开发市场和巩固其在已有立足点的地区。凭借其雄厚的财力和成功的历史,Flutter有望成为更具统治力的全球玩家。

预测与整合

Flutter在美国博彩市场的领先地位不仅仅是为了争取收入,还在于为长期主导地位奠定基础。在这个充满巨大潜力的市场中,其战略依托于早期优势、保持强大的市场份额,并扩展至在线赌场游戏等互补领域。随着FanDuel的持续增长,其盈利能力将成为其他业务的典范,为在其他地区取得成功提供模板。

展望2027年以后,全球博彩格局正准备迎接整合,特别是在欧洲、拉丁美洲,甚至亚洲。Flutter的收购策略表明,它将继续收购在在线博彩新兴或监管变革地区拥有强大市场地位的企业。这使得Flutter能够在全球合法化进程加速的同时,挖掘新的收入来源。

消息来源:SiGMA,Flutter最近的两次收购。

风险与监管环境

尽管Flutter前景乐观,仍然存在风险。尽管美国博彩监管扩展,但仍受政治和法律的不确定性影响。一些州已对广告和税率实施了严格限制,这可能影响利润率。同样,反博彩情绪可能在那些对成瘾和消费者保护问题日益关注的地区获得支持。此外,国内外竞争加剧,可能挤压市场份额并推高玩家获取成本。

然而,Flutter已经证明了其应变能力,并且其多元化的全球业务组合为应对特定市场的风险提供了缓冲。随着美国市场的成熟,以及其他地区的上线,Flutter的全球战略将面临考验,但其坚实的基础和早期的成功表明它有能力应对这些挑战。

Flutter对未来的高风险押注

Flutter预测到2027年利润翻倍是一个雄心勃勃的赌注,但这一赌注基于细致的市场分析和战略远见。美国体育博彩市场即将爆发,而Flutter通过FanDuel的强大存在确保了它将抓住这一增长的显著份额。同时,Flutter在欧洲和拉丁美洲的全球扩展努力有望确保长期盈利能力。

在一个充满碎片化和快速变化的行业中,Flutter在整合和创新方面的战略使其处于令人羡慕的位置。未来几年将是关键,因为监管、竞争和消费者动态不断演变,但如果Flutter的赌注成功,Flutter可能成为全球在线博彩市场无可争议的领导者。


现在点击此处,订阅SiGMA的每周十大新闻和我们的周报,随时了解最新的iGaming动态,并享受订阅者专属优惠。

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